-Also note how interestingly, aerosols do negative damage, so cleaning up the air actually will contribute to global warming...
So where did this sudden interest and research come from?
Just got back from my OSLEP class at Oklahoma University... on the class 'PaleoPerspective on Climate Change'
- Oklahoma Scholar-Leadership Enrichment Program
I learned more than I could ever write on a blog! But I feel I must share some :)
To be honest, My previous views:
- anthropogentic forcing of greenhouse gases was completely made up
- geologists and paleontologists just haven't studied Earth's fluctuating climate history enough to see that this cycle is normal!
- non-bias research proves me completely wrong :)
- global warming is taking place
- Temperatures have always fluctuated dramatically throughout Earth's history
- rise is CO2 emission is dramatic as well as direct increase in temperature
- Earth will be fine with global warming
- some animals will adapt
- some animals will migrate
- some animals will die
- that's life
- However, how uncomfortable will humans be with global warming
- Rate at which global warming is occuring is quite scary if you allow yourself to research it and not shut down in disbelief because of what some people have said on it
- I'm not an expert or even have a valid logical opinion unless I've thoroughly researched the topic and submitted my views to professionals.
I've learned that the majority, and I'm saying conservatively at least 95% of the experts in paleontology, geology, etc [not meteorologists... I realized how ignorant (meaning this as pleasantly as possible) they are about climate change believe it or not] are not the ones who mark this proposal as invalid.
It is actually the general public who is influenced by the media (particularly business, economical, and political views).
May I remind you, these are not the people who have even opened their minds to doing research on this matter or have any scientific background at all.
Albedo Effect
The main way of explaining global warming to me was the albedo effect, also known as reflection coefficient
- This is the amount of electromagnetic radiation that reflects away, compared to the amount that gets absorbed; The lower the albedo, the more radiation from the Sun that gets absorbed by the planet, and temperatures will rise. If the albedo is higher, and the Earth is more reflective, more of the radiation is returned to space, and the planet cools.cite
Earth is Always Changing
It is true that the Earth's climate has always and will always change.
However, the recent rise in temperature has direct correlation with the rise in CO2 in the Earth's atmosphere. I am also saying that the rise in greenhouse gas should not be blamed solely human actions. For instance, methane and water vapor are a greenhouse gas with water vapor being the most abundant and methane being very 'concentrated' and very effective in small amounts.
| Gas | Formula | Contribution (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Water Vapor | H2O | 36 – 72 % |
| Carbon Dioxide | CO2 | 9 – 26 % |
| Methane | CH4 | 4 – 9 % |
| Ozone | O3 | 3 – 7 % cite |
- For example, cows belches (not farts actually) produce a good chunk of the methane in the atmosphere.
- The 30 million bison roaming the Great Plains are estimated to have released 46 Tg CO2e enteric methane emissions annually (3), compared to the 140 Tg CO2e methane released in 2008 by U.S. beef and dairy cattle (about 85% of which are grazing at any particular point in time, the rest are in feedlots) (5). cite
- Another interesting part is the population of cows increased as the American Bison became instinct, largely by human efforts.
- Interestingly, people say that water vapor is the most abundant and is in far greater excess than our CO2 contributions so we're not actually making a big difference. But water vapor increases at temperature increases.
- The Clausius-Clapeyron relation establishes that air can hold more water vapor per unit volume when it warms. This and other basic principles indicate that warming associated with increased concentrations of the other greenhouse gases also will increase the concentration of water vapor. Because water vapor is a greenhouse gas this results in further warming, a "positive feedback" that amplifies the original warming. This positive feedback does not result in runaway global warming because it is offset by other processes that induce negative feedbacks, which stabilize average global temperatures. cite
cite
The IPCC
The IPCC, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is a very conservative organization despite what some say. Below is the desciption on their website.
- It was established by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to provide the world with a clear scientific view on the current state of knowledge in climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic impacts.
- Thousands of scientists from all over the world contribute to the work of the IPCC on a voluntary basis.
- Review is an essential part of the IPCC process, to ensure an objective and complete assessment of current information. IPCC aims to reflect a range of views and expertise.
- The IPCC is an intergovernmental body. It is open to all member countries of the United Nations (UN) and WMO. Currently 194 countries are members of the IPCC.
- Governments participate in the review process and the plenary Sessions, where main decisions about the IPCC work programme are taken and reports are accepted, adopted and approved. The IPCC Bureau Members, including the Chair, are also elected during the plenary Sessions.
- The work of the organization is therefore policy-relevant and yet policy-neutral, never policy-prescriptive.
- All IPCC reports must be endorsed by the Panel during a Working Group or a Plenary Session. There are three levels of endorsement:
- "Approval" means that the material has been subjected to line by line discussion and agreement. It is the procedure used for the Summary for Policymakers of the Reports.
- "Adoption" is a process of endorsement section by section. It is used for the Synthesis Report and overview chapters of Methodology Reports.
- "Acceptance" signifies that the material has not been subject to line by line nor section by section discussion and agreement, but nevertheless presents a comprehensive, objective and balanced view of the subject matter.
- The preparation of Assessment reports, Special reports and Methodology reports follows the same procedures. Simplified procedures apply to Technical papers.
This doesn't even begin to explain the work that goes into publishing reports from the IPCC. Literally, the comittee goes through each submitted research paper LINE BY LINE and the reports are discussed WORD BY WORD.
Members have to agree and take a VERY conservative stance, for instance, their 'likehood of occurrence' range is:
| Likelihood Terminology | Likelihood of the occurrence/ outcome |
|---|---|
| Virtually certain | > 99% probability |
| Extremely likely | > 95% probability |
| Very likely | > 90% probability |
| Likely | > 66% probability |
| More likely than not | > 50% probability |
| About as likely as not | 33 to 66% probability |
| Unlikely | < 33% probability |
| Very unlikely | < 10% probability |
| Extremely unlikely | < 5% probability |
| Exceptionally unlikely | < 1% probability |
Basically, if the IPCC reports state something, it has virtually been agreed upon by the leading experts and most sound research in the relevant fields.
Below are some of the IPCC reports:
In the 2007 IPCC report (most recent), the following statements were made:
IPCC on Current Warming Trends
- The average surface temperature of the Earth is likely to increase by 2 to 11.5°F (1.1-6.4°C) by the end of the 21st century, relative to 1980-1990, with a best estimate of 3.2 to 7.2°F (1.8-4.0°C) (see Figure 1). The average rate of warming over each inhabited continent is very likely to be at least twice as large as that experienced during the 20th century.
- Warming will not be evenly distributed around the globe (see Figure 2):
- Land areas will warm more than oceans in part due to water's ability to store heat.
- High latitudes will warm more than low latitudes in part due to positive feedback effects from melting ice (as discussed above).
- Most of North America; all of Africa, Europe, northern and central Asia; and most of Central and South America are likely to warm more than the global average. Projections suggest that the warming will be close to the global average in south Asia, Australia and New Zealand, and southern South America.
- The warming will differ by season, with winters warming more than summers in most areas.
- For additional explanatory information about some of the projected spatial and seasonal differences in warming, see the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) fact sheet "Patterns of Global Warming" (PDF, 1 pp., 15 KB, About PDF)
- Eleven of the twelve years in the period (1995–2006) rank among the top 12 warmest years in the instrumental record (since 1850, towards the end of the Little Ice Age).
- There has been an increase in hurricane intensity in the North Atlantic since the 1970s, and that increase correlates with increases in sea surface temperature.
- The observed increase in hurricane intensity is larger than climate models predict for the sea surface temperature changes we have experienced.
Below shows different expected rise of CO2 with the orange line showing the rate if CO2 emission stopped now: cite
The projected temperature change cite
Natural processes have also contributed right? Yes... but interestingly, nature usually has a negative effect on temperature. The graph below demonstrates this very well:
cite
This is just the beginning of all there is to say, but I wanted to share my contributions... I made a wikipedia page with 2 other group members, please read :) Effects of Climate Change on Terrestrial Animals
Remember, people can change my page at any time, so I hope what you read is my work :)
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